[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 9 09:51:45 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous UT day
with no significant X-ray flares. Background solar X-ray flux
continued to be at very low levels. Region 813 has shown some
minor plage enhancements and filament activity over the reporting
period and remains capable of producing isolated C-class flares.
Overall solar activity is expected to continue at low to very
low levels over the next 24 hours. No new regions were numbered.
A recurrent equatorial coronal hole remains in geoeffective position.
The Earth entered a high speed coronal hole wind stream at ~0200Z
when the solar wind velocity rapidly climbed to over 700km/s
and the solar wind density dropped to very low levels. Currently
the solar wind speed has eased back slightly to be 680km/s at
the time of this report. The Earth is expected to remain in the
high speed stream for another 24 hours, resulting in continued
unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 17 3444 2233
Darwin 14 3433 2233
Learmonth 17 3443 2242
Culgoora 14 3334 2233
Canberra 17 3444 2233
Hobart 16 3344 2233
Casey(Ant) 28 5-54 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Hobart 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1222 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 16 active
10 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were experienced
over the previous 24 hours in reponse to the Earth entering a
high speed coronal hole solar wind stream at ~0200Z. These conditions
are expected to prevail for the next 24-48 hours, particularly
in the high latitude regions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The dayside ionosphere was depressed 15-20% for up to
6 hours following the onset of enhanced geomagnetic activity
at ~0200Z. Widespread depressions also occurred throughout the
local nighttime. In addition, isolated and variable periods of
depression were observed at low latitudes over the UT day. Geomagnetic
activity remains at unsettled levels, which may act to slightly
depress HF conditions over the next 24 hours, but the current
indication is that the effect will only be minor at mid and low
latitudes. Further isolated and variable depressions at low latitudes
possible over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Variable depressions up to 30% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 24 Variably depressed to 20% Equatorial/N.Aus region,
Near predicted monthly values elsewhere
10 Oct 25 near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 28 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was depressed
15-20% for up to 6 hours during the local daytime following the
onset of geomagnetic activity at ~0200Z. Similar depressions
occurred throughout the local nighttime. Variable depressions
were again observed in the Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect mildly
depressed HF conditions over the next 24 hours, particularly
in the NZ/S.Aus/Antarctic regions in response to continuing elevated
geomagnetic activity levels, however the current indication is
that the effect will only be minor for the Australian ionosphere.
Variable depressions expected to continue in the Equatorial/N.Aus
region. Isolated disturbances possible in the Antarctic region
associated with periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 84100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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