[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 8 09:39:15 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous UT day 
with just one B-class X-ray flare of magnitude B1.0 at 0649Z. 
Background solar X-ray flux was very low over the previous 24 
hours. Region 813 decayed slightly over the period and is now 
a CAI beta-gamma with a very weak gamma structure. This region 
may still produce isolated C-class flares. Solar activity is 
expected to continue at low to very low levels over the next 
24 hours. No new regions were numbered. A recurrent equatorial 
coronal hole has moved into geoeffective position. The solar 
wind at ACE has been steadily increasing in velocity since 10UT, 
and was just over 400km/s at time of this report, which may be 
the commencement of a high speed solar wind stream associated 
with the coronal hole. IMF Bz at ACE showed an extended period 
of southward orientation between 1830 and 2130Z, resulting in 
enhanced geomagnetic activity levels. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2122 2233
      Darwin               7   2122 2233
      Learmonth            8   2212 2333
      Culgoora             6   1112 2233
      Canberra             6   0122 2233
      Hobart               5   1011 2233
      Casey(Ant)          12   3-33 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct    16    active 
09 Oct    20    active 
10 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet until ~10UT when 
it became unsettled in response to a steady increase in solar 
wind velocity. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to prevail for the next 24-48 hours in reponse to a 
coronal hole wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated periods of depression were observed at low 
latitudes over the UT day, particularly during the local nighttime, 
otherwise conditions were mostly normal. Expect slightly depressed 
HF conditions to prevail over the next 24-48 hours, particularly 
at high latitudes in response to elevated geomagnetic activity 
levels. Further isolated and variable depressions at low latitudes 
possible over the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    19    Variably depressed to 20% Equatorial/N.Aus region, 
                Near predicted monthly values elsewhere 
09 Oct    15    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
10 Oct    23    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions, 
otherwise mostly normal HF conditions observed over the past 
24 hours. Expect mildly depressed HF conditions over the next 
24-48 hours, particularly in the NZ/S.Aus/Antarctic regions in 
response to elevated geomagnetic activity levels, with variable 
depressions continuing in the Equatorial/N.Aus regions. Isolated 
disturbances possible in the Antarctic region associated with 
periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    26300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list