[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 1001
      Darwin               1   1110 100-
      Learmonth            1   1100 1001
      Culgoora             2   1111 1011
      Canberra             1   1100 1001
      Hobart               2   1110 1011
      Casey(Ant)           7   2--- ---2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3200 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct     5    Quiet 
14 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late on 
the 14th October in response to a small coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Vanimo 19-21 UT. Spread F observed at Port Moresby
      12-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E
      observed at Darwin 13-18 UT and spread F from 13-17 UT
      Sporadic E observed at Niue 16-17 and 20 UT. Sporadic
      E observed at Brisbane 13-14 UT and spread F 17-19
      UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Canberra 04-07 UT, Mundaring 02-03 UT and Hobart 03-05 UT.
      Spread F observed at Canberra 16-18 UT and Hobart
      14-18 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct    23    near predicted monthly values 
14 Oct    23    near predicted monthly values 
15 Oct    15    Higher latitudes are likely to experience depressions 
                to 40% at times. Lower latitude MUFs should be 
                near predicted monthly values. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 562 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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