[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 16 09:42:23 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 2236UT confirmed lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0219UT
on 15 May. Solar wind jumped from approximately 500 to 900 km/sec,
then slowly declined. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was strongly southward 05-06 UT on 15 May. Shock
was from the recent M8 flare/CME. The sun was mainly quiet until
solar region 763 (S16E18) produced an M3/1N flare at 2236UT.
The flare appeared in Culgoora imagery as three point brightenings
and was associated with a strong type II radio sweep, observed
on the Culgoora spectrograph 2230 to 2250UT, with an estimated
shock speed of 600 to 700km/sec. Further isolated flaring may
be observed today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Severe
Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 47 5575 3244
Learmonth 89 567- ----
Culgoora 46 5575 2243
Canberra 52 5576 3244
Hobart 69 658- 3244
Casey(Ant) 54 6-75 3344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 75
Planetary 100
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 2132 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 18 active
17 May 13 Unsettled to Active
18 May 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 14 May and
is current for interval 15-16 May. Sudden impulse of approximately
40 to 50nT observed at 0239UT. Severe storm levels followed impulse.
Auroral sightings were reported in past 24 hours. Field is expected
to gradually decline until, late 17 May, when another (not as
strong) coronal mass ejection induced disturbance may occur (yet
to be confirmed).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0545UT 14/05, Ended at 1225UT 15/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions due to CME induced activity.
HF conditions should gradually improve.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
17 May 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
18 May 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 14 May
and is current for interval 15-16 May. Degraded HF conditions
overnight. Australian regional ionosphere has not had a strong
storm response to overnight geomagnetic activity, probably due
to seasonal factors. Northern hemisphere ionosphere appears to
be more significantly impacted. Degraded conditions may be experieneced
for today, then improving. A return to degraded conditions may
be experienced on 19 May, following this morning presumed mass
ejection.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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