[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 17 09:39:25 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0244UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 0909UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the past
24 hours, following the recent coronal mass ejection disturbance,
and is now at 500km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mildly southward by around 10nT 00-17UT. Solar
region 763 produced an M1.4/0N flare at 0244, and an M1.6 flare
at 0909UT. There was considerable activity from a large filament
to the north-west of solar region 759, arching from N15W04 to
N13W19 over the interval 0000-0500UT. A small brightening was
visible, at around 0100-0140UT, with material appearing to have
been deposited eastward across the disk. This filament has now
vanished from the solar disk, and had an approximate area of
1700millionths of the solar disk or about 70 square degrees.
LASCO C3 imagery only showed a north west directed mass ejection
starting at around 16UT, so it is not clear whether this event
is related to the filament activity or whether the filament material
has left the Sun. The Culgoora radio spectrograph was quiet for
most of the day, except for strong burst around 0240UT related
to the M1 flare. This suggests that the filament eruption, though
well placed just west of solar central meridian may not be very
geoeffective, as perhaps only some of the material left the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 23 3454 3421
Learmonth 30 -455 4422
Culgoora 23 2554 3311
Canberra 23 2-54 4421
Hobart 24 3--5 4421
Casey(Ant) 12 3333 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 44
Planetary 105 5598 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 13 Unsettled
18 May 25 Active to minor storm
19 May 20 Active
COMMENT: Coronal mass ejection and coronal hole wind stream induced
activity is expected 18-19 May.
A possible weak (21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1007UT on 16 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0545UT 14/05, Ended at 1225UT 15/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today. However, moderately
degraded HF conditions due to CME induced activity expected 18-19
May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 30 near predicted monthly values
18 May 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20%
19 May 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for today. A mild
to moderate degradation in HF condtions is expected for southern
Aus/NZ region 18 to 19 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 844 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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