[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
14/1615UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 1121
      Learmonth            4   1222 1111
      Culgoora             3   1121 1021
      Canberra             5   1122 2120
      Hobart               4   1221 1120
      Casey(Ant)          10   2333 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             27   5553 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    58    Storm levels 
16 May    44    Minor storm 
17 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 14 May and 
is current for interval 15-16 May. Strongly disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 05 2005 0545UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal-Poor    Poor           Poor(PCA)
16 May      Normal-Fair    Fair-Poor      Poor
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 40% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    20    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
16 May    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
17 May    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 14 May 
and is current for interval 15-16 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 531 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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