[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.6/SF    0733UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
M1.4/1N    1740UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             110/60




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 1322
      Learmonth           11   2332 1333
      Culgoora            11   2333 1322
      Canberra            10   2333 0322
      Hobart               9   2233 1322
      Casey(Ant)          19   3443 14-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1023 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     6    Quiet 
14 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    40    Near predicted monthly values 
14 May    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
15 May    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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