[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0641UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
M1.1/1F    1938UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1133 2233
      Learmonth            9   1133 2233
      Culgoora             9   1133 2232
      Canberra            12   1134 2333
      Hobart              12   1134 2332
      Casey(Ant)          10   2332 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   3332 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    12    Unsettled 
13 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 30% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
13 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
14 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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