[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M8/2B    1657UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             110/60             100/48
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3333 4421
      Learmonth           22   3332 5521
      Culgoora            16   2343 3421
      Canberra            19   3343 4420
      Hobart              15   2343 3411
      Casey(Ant)          16   432- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   3434 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May    17    active 
15 May    76    Storm levels 
16 May    42    Minor storm 
COMMENT: Strongly disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during 
the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 May      Normal-Poor    Poor           Poor
16 May      Normal-Fair    Fair-Poor      Poor
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 May    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May    30    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
15 May    40    Near predicted monthly values 
16 May    30    Depressed 30-40% 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 503 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   180000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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