[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 9 10:40:59 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
++CORRECTED COPY++
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) north-south Bz component
was quite southward 10-16UT, with large excursions up to 20nT.
Solar wind speed fluctuated between 450km/sec to 800 km/sec (a
possible weak discontinuity in solar wind speed at around 1130UT,
possibly from recent CME on 6 May). M class flare events still possible
in the next few days 758 now just west of solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Unsettled to
Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 50 4335 7643
Learmonth 47 5335 6654
Culgoora 36 4325 6542
Canberra 52 4435 7643
Hobart 59 4425 7742
Casey(Ant) 47 4334 7643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 70
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2101 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 20 active
10 May 20 active
11 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 8 May and is
current for interval 8-10 May. Overnight geomagnetic storm conditions
were much stronger than forecast due to southward IMF conditions.
This may mean that recent CME activity and coronal hole wind
stream effects both induced activity simultaneously. 27 day recurrent
patterns suggest active periods likely for next two days, but
not as strong as activity just experienced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Fair-Normal Fair
10 May Normal Fair-Normal Fair
11 May Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 May 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 May 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 8 May
and is current for interval 8-10 May. Southern Australian and
NZ region MUFs have been depressed by 15-20% after local dawn
this morning. Northern Australian region MUFs have been near
or above normal. Further depressions for southern region Australia
likley after local dawn for next couple of days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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