[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 10 09:54:28 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:
Flares:
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May:
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a
C8.9 class flare from region 758 at 1035UT being the most notable
event. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) north-south Bz
component was northward for most of the UT day, with a few sporadic
excursions southward in the latter half of the day, at a maximum
of -5nT. Solar wind speed has shown a declining trend over the
last 24 hours from a maximum of 600km/s to be 550km/s at the
time of this report. Chance of M-class events still possible
in the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 4 2221 0112
Learmonth 6 2222 0222
Culgoora 3 2121 0112
Canberra 3 1121 0112
Hobart 4 2221 1112
Casey(Ant) 9 3-32 1222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg ??
Planetary ??
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg ??
Planetary ?? 6645 7644
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 15 Unsettled to Active
11 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 8 May and is
current for interval 8-10 May. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours, with the storm conditions from
08May abating. Unsettled to active conditions possible for the
next 2 days, with coronal hole effects being the main source
of any expected geomagnetic disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected over the next 2 days with
the possible degraded periods for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
11 May 40 near predicted monthly values
12 May 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 8 May
and is current for interval 8-10 May. Normal conditions are expected
for Northern Aust regions. Similar conditions expected for Southern
Australian and NZ regions, but with the chance of MUF depressions
of 10% for the next 24 hours. Conditions expected to return to
normal over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 707 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 355000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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