[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. 
The IMF north-south Bz component was mostly southward with large 
excursions up to 20nT. M class events still possible in the next 
few days and the effects of the halo CME from 06/1605 from AR758 
may be felt in the next 24hrs. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
08/1505UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels


Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      50   4335 7643
      Learmonth           47   5335 6654
      Culgoora            36   4325 6542
      Canberra            52   4435 7643
      Hobart              59   4425 7742
      Casey(Ant)          47   4334 7643
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        40
           Planetary             70                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2101 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    17    active 
10 May    20    active 
11 May    22    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 8 May and is 
current for interval 8-10 May. Unsettled to Active conditions 
possible over the next 24 hours with Active conditions possible 
for 09May due to 06May earth directed CME and a geoeffective 
coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    30    ??? 
10 May    35    ??? 
11 May    26    ??? 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 8 May 
and is current for interval 8-10 May. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for the next 2 days, but with the increasing chance 
of degraded periods for high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    91700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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