[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:YELLOW   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: A new solar region located at (S08E77) produced a C8/0F 
flare, with associated Type II radio sweep (500-700km/sec), observed 
on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. The flare in Culgoora H-alpha 
imagery, appeared as 3 sites near the limb, one near the solar 
equator, the other two clustered near S10. Event data suggests 
that a weak mass ejection may have occurred. The xray flux has 
a slow decline. The regions far eastern location suggests that 
this event is unlikely to be geoeffective. This regions proximity 
to limb limits spot analysis, just some small spots visible, 
maybe just leaders. Further isolated flares are possible, if 
this region continues development. This region has been numbered 
758 by the US SEC. Solar wind speed has dropped as the Earth 
leaves the recent high speed wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3221 3111
      Learmonth            8   3221 3212
      Culgoora             4   2211 2111
      Canberra             5   2211 3111
      Hobart               5   2211 3111
      Casey(Ant)          13   4432 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             26   5643 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    13    Quiet to unsettled 
04 May     8    Quiet 
05 May     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet geomagnetic 
conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    35    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    35    near predicted monthly values 
05 May    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 634 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   296000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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