[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: A partial halo CME was observed from the rear side of 
the sun at 1750UT. The north-south component of the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field remained near neutral. Solar wind speed started 
the day at around 500 km/sec, then increased to 600km/sec before 
dropping back to finish the day at around 450 km/sec. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 3322
      Learmonth            9   2223 3222
      Culgoora             9   1223 3322
      Canberra            10   2223 3322
      Hobart              10   2223 3321
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2221 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
05 May    10    Quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods 
                possible due to the solar activity late on 2 
                May. 
06 May     5    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 May    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    40    near predicted monthly values 
05 May    40    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May    40    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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