[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Region 756 has decayed slightly over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remained between 600 and 700 km/sec over the 
past 24 hours. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained around neutral. A faint halo CME observed 
0050UT is not expected to have a significant geomagnetic effect. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 4332
      Learmonth           19   3333 5332
      Culgoora            14   3333 4221
      Canberra            15   3333 4322
      Hobart              16   3333 4332
      Casey(Ant)          21   4443 33-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             21   5433 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    25    quiet to active, with isolated minor storm periods 
                possible. 
03 May    13    Quiet to unsettled 
04 May     8    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 April and 
is current for interval 1-2 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    40    near predicted monthly values 
03 May    35    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    30    near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   263000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"