[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: A slow Type II radio sweep was reported at 0707UT on 
19 Mar, but no signature of any mass ejection in ACE EPAM data, 
or LASCO C3 spaced based coronagraph has been observed. No mass 
ejection appears to have left the Sun. The Sun has been mostly 
flare quiet over past 24 hours, with some minor C class flare 
activity from solar region 743 nearing the south-west solar limb. 
Low solar activity is expected over coming days, however 743 is
showing some increase in magnetic complexity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2120
      Learmonth            3   1111 1121
      Culgoora             4   1111 2120
      Canberra             3   0111 2120
      Hobart               4   0211 2120
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--3 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   5422 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Mar    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Mar    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today, with enhnaced 
MUFs. MUFs yesterday were unexpectedly higher than monthly predicted 
values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    98600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"