[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Low solar activity is expected over coming days. Some 
activity from solar region 743 which will rotate off the solar 
south-west limb in a day or two. A coronal hole is visible in 
US SEC SXI (Soft Xray Imager GOES 12 Satellite) in the eastern 
solar hemisphere extending north to south. The Earth is expected 
to enter the high speed wind stream from this hole around midday 
UT 24 Mar. Recurrence suggests moderate solar wind speeds of 
around 500-600km/sec until 25 Mar. A new solar region numbered 
745 by US SEC at (N14E54) produced some sub-faint (minor optical) 
flares this morning. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1023 3212
      Learmonth            7   2023 3212
      Culgoora             6   2023 2201
      Canberra             6   0023 3201
      Hobart               6   0023 3201
      Casey(Ant)           9   22-3 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1212 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar     8    Quiet 
23 Mar     8    Quiet 
24 Mar    18    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 March and 
is current for interval 24-25 March. Quiet conditions expected 
next two days, 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active periods 
are probable 24-25 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
24 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-Fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Mar    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    55    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for next few days. Mild 
depression may be experienced southern Aus/NZ region 26 Mar. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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