[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:55:16 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 2222 2001
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Learmonth 6 3312 1001
Culgoora 8 3323 2001
Canberra 9 3323 3000
Hobart 9 3323 3001
Casey(Ant) 7 --33 1011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1123 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced
during the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes
only during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 40 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 85900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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