[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 05

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:55:16 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 2001
      Darwin               0   0000 0000
      Learmonth            6   3312 1001
      Culgoora             8   3323 2001
      Canberra             9   3323 3000
      Hobart               9   3323 3001
      Casey(Ant)           7   --33 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1123 1333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    25    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Mar    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    85900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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