[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 16 10:30:24 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:YELLOW ION: YELLOW
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 741(N10W81)
produced the largest flare of the day, a C2 flare at 0647UT.
A CME was observed at 1548UT in the LASCO imagery from the
south-eastern limb at 1548UT. This CME seems to be a back
side event and does not seem to be earthward directed. The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 400 km/s to 360 km/s
(approx.) as the effect of the small coronal declined during
the last 24 hours. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value, staying slightly positive
for relatively longer periods. Region 742(S05W40) is the
largest region on the disk and it has grown in magnetic
complexity to Beta-Gamma configuration. Solar activity is
expected to remain at low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 1111 1011
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Learmonth 3 2211 2001
Culgoora 3 1--- ----
Canberra 2 1110 2012
Hobart 3 1210 2011
Casey(Ant) 4 2--2 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 4434 5322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 14 Mostly quiet to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
17 Mar 14 Quiet to active.
18 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 15 March
and is current for interval 16 March only. The geomagnetic
activity did not rise to the anticipated levels during the
last 24 hours, probably because the north-south component
of the inter planetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly
positive for most of the time during this period and also
the small coronal hole did not strengthen the solar wind to
the expected levels. The glancing blow from the CME observed
on 14 March may raise the activity to active levels on
16 March with slight possibility of isolated minor storm
periods if Bz turns and stays southwards. Another small
coronal hole, that is taking a geoeffective position, may
also raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled and isolated
active periods on 17 and 18 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude
locations during the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradations on 16 and 17 March. Minor to mild
degradations are possible on high latitudes during the
next three days due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 50 near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on
15 March and is current for interval 16 March only. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in most
locations around Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
However, periods of minor and sometimes mild depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed
at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 16 and 17 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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