[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1112 2221
      Darwin               0   0000 0000
      Learmonth            6   1112 3221
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             3   1--- ----
      Hobart               7   1112 3231
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--2 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
18 Mar    12    Unsettled 
19 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Anticipated activity from recent erupting solar filament 
failed to eventuate. Weak receurrent pattern next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 150% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 15%. 
18 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 15%. 
19 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 15%. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    52300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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