[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 15 10:53:54 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Regions 741(N12W69)
produced the largest flare of the day, a C1 flare at 0708UT.
A partial halo CME was also seen in the LASCO C2 imagery at
0800UT on the Western limb slightly on the south side.
Culgoora reported an eruptive prominence from S07W90 at
0726UT. This erruption seems to be the cause of this CME.
The CME may result in a glancing blow on the earth on 16 March
and may cause some strengthening in the solar wind stream
around that time. As anticipated, the solar wind stream
gained some strength today due to the effect of the small
coronal hole. The solar wind speed gradually increased from
340 km/s to 400 km/s (approx.) The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained nearly
stable and slightly negative until around o400UT and
then showed minor to mild fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value during the rest of the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to remain at low levels during the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Mostly quiet to
active with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 2212
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Learmonth 9 3223 -221
Culgoora 4 22-0 ---3
Canberra 11 2333 -222
Hobart 10 2333 -211
Casey(Ant) 11 3--3 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1001 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of active
periods.
16 Mar 10 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
17 Mar 16 Mostly quiet to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 15 and 16 March
with possibility of isolated active periods on 15 March
due to the effect of small coronal hole. The activity level
may rise further upto active and even isolated minor storm
perids on 17 March due to a possible glancing blow from a
CME observed on 14 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to remain
mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude locations
during the next two days with some possibility of minor to
mild degradations on the third day. Minor and to mild
degradations may be possible on high latitudes on 15 March.
Minor to modrate degradations are possible on high latitues
on 17 March due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity
on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods
of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
16 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
17 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the next three
days. However, periods of minor and sometimes mild depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed at
times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 15 and 17 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 20100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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