[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              95/41




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2331 3323
      Darwin               9   232- ----
      Learmonth            9   2221 3333
      Culgoora             8   2321 3223
      Canberra             9   1321 3323
      Hobart              11   1332 3323
      Casey(Ant)          15   3442 2323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1000 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar    17    active 
07 Mar    26    active 
08 Mar    22    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Mar      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Mar    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
08 Mar    20    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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