[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind increased over the past 24 hours from around 
400km/s to around 700km/s, due to a coronal hole. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained close 
to neutral. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: mostly unsettled to active, with
isolated minor storm periods. 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4334 3433
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           23   5334 3434
      Culgoora            20   4334 3433
      Canberra            24   4335 3443
      Hobart              26   4345 3443
      Casey(Ant)          32   5544 3533
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1322 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    25    mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
08 Mar    20    mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
09 Mar    20    mostly unsettled to active, with isolated minor 
                storm periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 March and 
is current for interval 7-8 March. Coronal hole-induced geomagnetic 
activity is expected to continue over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    20    10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region. 
08 Mar    20    10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region. 
09 Mar    20    10-20% depressed southern Australian / NZ region. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 6 March 
and is current for interval 8-9 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:   11.2 p/cc  Temp:    39300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"