[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
04/0540UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2112 1111
      Darwin               3   1111 1112
      Learmonth            3   2012 0111
      Culgoora             2   1111 1011
      Canberra             2   2111 0001
      Hobart               2   1111 1101
      Casey(Ant)           9   3333 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1101 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     3    Quiet 
06 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
07 Mar    23    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 517 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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