[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind continued to decline over the past 24 hours, 
ending the day at around 450 km/s. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northwards over 
the past 24 hours. A B-class flare on the sun's north-east limb 
may herald the return of old region 732. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2211 2221
      Darwin               6   2220 2222
      Learmonth            6   3110 2221
      Culgoora             3   1110 2211
      Canberra             5   2110 3211
      Hobart               7   2221 3211
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-2 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3333 3311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     5    Quiet 
05 Mar     5    Quiet 
06 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to increase to unsettled 
levels, with brief active periods possible, from 6 March. This 
may continue through till 13 March due to coronal hole activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may decline over the period 
6-13 March due to coronal hole-induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 631 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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