[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 28 09:28:35 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several B-class and
one C2.8/0848 flares were observed. The C-flare came from a 
new region 781(N16E75). The solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decrease from 480 to 380 km/s during the UT day today as the 
coronal  hole  effect  weakened  further.  The  north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained 
close to the normal value almost the whole day today. The 
effect of the  CME observed on 25 June may keep the solar 
wind stream  slightly  strengthened on 28 June. The solar 
activity is expected to remain very low to low during the 
next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 2112
      Learmonth            1   1000 1111
      Culgoora            11   133- ---3
      Canberra             1   1000 2011
      Hobart               2   1001 2011
      Casey(Ant)           5   2211 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3322 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Jun     7    Quiet 
30 Jun     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: There is some possibility that the effect of the 
earthward component of the CME observed on 25 June may 
keep the geomagnetic activity slightly enhanced on 28 June, 
especially if Bz stays southwards for sustained periods of 
time. Quiet conditions are expected on 29 and 30 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations on high 
latitude locations during the next 24 hours due to the 
possibility of some enhancements in the geomagnetic activity 
during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jun    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    26    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    28    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%. 
30 Jun    28    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 555 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   147000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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