[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:34:15 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few 
B-class flares were observed, mainly from region 781(N16E63). 
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 390 to 
370 km/s by 0800UT and then gradually increased to little 
over 400 km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the 
normal value almost the whole day today. The effect of 
another coronal hole is expected to strengthen the solar 
wind stream for about three days starting from 01 July. 
The solar activity is expected to remain very low to low 
during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1111
      Learmonth            3   1211 1011
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             1   1110 0001
      Hobart               2   1011 1111
      Casey(Ant)           4   1212 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun     7    Quiet 
30 Jun     7    Quiet 
01 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled with possibility of active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected on 29 and 30 June. 
The effect of a recurrent high speed coronal hole solar 
wind stream may raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled 
and some times active levels on 01 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations on high 
latitude locations on 01 July due to the possibility of 
some enhancements in the geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Jun    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    28    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%. 
30 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%. 
01 Jul    27    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days with some 
possibility of minor to mild degrdations in Southern Aus/NZ 
regions at times on 01 July due to an expected possible rise 
in the geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    62200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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