[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 27 09:38:03 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class and 
one C1.2/2035 flares were observed. The C-flare came from 
a region that is about to pass the eastern limb and appear 
on the disk soon. A full halo CME was also observed today, 
but it could not be related to any other event. The 
appearance of this CME seems to be a back side event with 
no earthward component. The solar wind speed showed a 
gradual decrease from 650 to 470 km/s during the UT day 
today and the coronal hole effect seems to be weakening. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained slightly negative for most part of 
the UT day today. The remaining effect of the coronal hole 
and that of the CME observed on 25 June may keep the solar 
wind stream slightly strengthened on 27 and 28 June. The 
solar activity is expected to remain very low to low during 
the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2212 3211
      Learmonth            6   2212 3111
      Culgoora             5   2212 2111
      Canberra             5   1212 2210
      Hobart               6   1212 3211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3322 3312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3312 2323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Jun     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The coronal hole effect seems to have started to 
weaken. However, the remaining effect of this coronal hole 
and that of a CME observed on 25 June may keep the geomagnetic 
activity slightly enhanced during the next two days, 
especially if Bz stays southwards for sustained periods of 
time. Quiet conditions are expected on the third day. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are may show some degradations on 
high latitude locations during the next two days due to 
the possibility of some enhancements in the geomagnetic 
activity during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jun    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    28    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    28    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 595 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   225000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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