[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 26 09:53:58 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. One C1.3/0346UT and
one B4.3/0404UT flares were observed from region 780(S07W44).
The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 500 to
650 km/s by 2100UT and then decreased to 600 km/s by the time
of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations on
both sides of the normal value throughout the UT day. A full
halo CME was observed in the LASCO imagery starting at 0805UT.
This CME may have a partial earthward component and may cause
some strengthening in the solar wind stream in the second half
of the UT day on 27 June. The coronal hole effect is also
expected to continue to keep the solar wind stream strengthened
till around 27 June. The solar activity is expected to remain
very low from 26 to 28 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 2322 1332
Learmonth 9 2322 1332
Culgoora 7 2322 1222
Canberra 9 2322 2232
Hobart 6 2212 2222
Casey(Ant) 14 2432 14-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 111 (Major storm)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 17 4533 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 15 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
27 Jun 15 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
28 Jun 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 24 June
and is current for interval 24-26 June. The coronal hole
effect is expected to continue for two more days and it is
expected to keep the geomagnetic activity at mostly unsettled
level with possibility of active periods during this period.
However, if Bz stays southward for sustained periods, the
activity level may rise up further. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 28 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show minor to
moderate degradations on high latitude and occassionally
on some mid latitude locations during the next two days
due to an anticipated enhancement in geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degrdations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 28 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is some possibility of minor to mild
degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions during the
next two days due to an anticipated continued rise
in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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