[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 25 09:48:10 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only one
B4.0 flare was observed at 0142UT. The anticipated
coronal hole effect is continuing to keep the solar
wind stream strengthened. The solar wind speed remained
between 480 and 500 km/s almost the whole day today.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value throughout the UT day. The solar wind
stream is expected to remain strong due to this high speed
coronal hole stream during the next two days and the solar
activity is expected to remain very low during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 2313 1100
Learmonth 8 2314 1200
Culgoora 6 2313 1100
Canberra 7 2323 1100
Hobart 8 2314 1100
Casey(Ant) 9 3323 2211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 142 (Severe storm)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 48 4475 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 16 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
26 Jun 16 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
27 Jun 14 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 24 June
and is current for interval 24-26 June. The geomagnetic
activity did not rise as much as expected as Bz remained
close to the normal value almost the whole day today. The
coronal hole effect is expected to continue for two more
days and it is expected to keep the geomagnetic activity
at unsettled to active levels during this period. If Bz
stays southward, the activity level may rise up further.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 27 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show minor to
moderate degradations on high latitude and occassionally
on some mid latitude locations during the next two days
due to an anticipated enhancement in geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 28 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is some possibility of minor to mild
degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions during the
next two days due to an anticipated continued rise
in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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