[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Only 
minor C-class activity was observed. The most significant event 
was a C5.9 level flare from AR 786. This region maintains a moderate 
magnetic complexity and has a minor possibility of M-classs activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 1211
      Learmonth            3   1121 1201
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   0110 1201
      Hobart               4   1211 2211
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 1212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1112 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     7    Quiet 
08 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind continues to decline towards nominal levels. 
Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the past 24 hours. 
There is a possibility of intervals of slightly disturbed conditions 
over the next two to three days as a narrow northern hemisphere 
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over low-mid latitudes 
during the last 24 hours, with high latitudes experiencing periods 
of disturbance. Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days, 
with isolated periods of degradations at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated periods of spread-F observed at low and high 
latitudes, particularly local night. Good HF conditions expected 
for N Aus region next three days. Isolated periods of degradation 
possible at mid to high latitudes on days two and three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    56700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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