[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 6 09:50:11 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class activity. The largest event originated from region 786,
with a C1.8 class flare at 0124UT. Regions 787 and 788 where
also the source of low level C-class flares, with a faint partial
halo CME associated with region 788's C1.3 class flare at 1500UT.
Solar wind speed continued to decline from 440km/s at 0000UT
to be 400km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) flucatuated between
+/-2nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be low
with only the slight chance of an M-class event. Region 786
displayed some small growth again in its sunpot size, while
region 783 showed signs of slight decay. There was no notable
change in magnetic complexity seen for any of the current regions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 1112 2001
Learmonth 3 1212 2001
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 1 0011 2000
Hobart 2 1111 2001
Casey(Ant) 5 2222 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra 142 (Severe storm)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 7 Quiet
07 Jul 7 Quiet
08 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected over the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over low-mid latitudes
during the last 24 hours, with high latitudes experiencing periods
of disturbance. Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days,
with isolated periods of degradations at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for northern AUS regions
for the next 2 days. Isolated degradations for Southern AUS/NZ
regions are to be expected over the same forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 70000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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