[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 8 09:48:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.9/SN 1629UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity observed today. A disappearing
solar filament in the vicinity of AR 786 was observed at 1030UT.
This had an associated predominantly westward directed partial
halo CME. An M 4.9 level flare was observed in AR 786 at 1630UT,
with an associated mostly eastward directed faint-halo CME. Region
786 maintains a moderate magnetic complexity and has a possibility
of further M-classs activity. Solar wind parameters have so far
not been influenced by the small coronal hole now in geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 2221 2212
Learmonth 5 1221 2211
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 3 1110 2212
Hobart 4 2111 2211
Casey(Ant) 7 2321 2212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Jul 25 active
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity continues to decline towards nominal
levels. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the past
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
trended southward to -5nT after 14UT. Low solar wind velocities
resulted in no observed geomagnetic disturbance in the Australasian
region from the negative IMF bias. There is a possibility of
unsettled to active intervals of geomagnetic conditions over
the next three days resulting from two weak partial-halo CME's
observed today and possible coronal-hole induced solar wind disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. There is a possibility of disturbed intervals
over the next three days, mainly at mid to high latitudes, resulting
from observed solar activity on Jul 07, and possible coronal-hole
induced solar wind disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated periods of spread-F observed at low and high
latitudes, particularly local night. There is a possibility of
periods of degraded HF conditions over the next three days mainly
at mid to high latitudes due to observed solar activity on Jul
07 and possible coronal-hole induced solar wind disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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