[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 3 09:30:09 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with C-class activity from 
regions 785 and 786. The largest event being a C3.5 class flare 
from region 785 at 0308UT. Region 785 was the source of 5 C-class 
events and region 786 produced one. Solar wind speed began to 
decline at the beginning of the UT day from 620km/s to be 540km/s 
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT for 
most of the UT day. The effects of this current geoeffective 
coronal hole appear to be waning, but southward Bz periods are 
still expected for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to moderate with the possibility of M-class events 
if further growth in regions 783,785 and 786 continue. The majority 
of regions on disk appear to magnetically simple at the moment. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
02/0840UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 2332
      Learmonth           10   3322 2322
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             8   3321 2221
      Hobart              10   3322 3222
      Casey(Ant)          17   4432 2342
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             114   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   2221 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
05 Jul     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Unsettled conditions expected over the next 24 
hours arising from declining coronal hole effects. Isolated
Active periods still possible for the next 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed over the last 
24 hours with only some degradations at high latitude locations.
Similar conditions are expected over the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over 
the next 24 hours for Aus/NZ regions. Possible minor degradations 
in Southern Aus/NZ regions are expected over the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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