[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 2 09:34:29 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with C-class activity from 
new regions 786 and 782. The largest event being a C5.3 class 
flare from region 786. Solar wind speed began to steadily rise 
with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed wind stream - 
from 400km/s to 500km/s between 0900UT and 2100UT, after which 
it climbed to be 600km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-5nT between 0000UT-1400UT and then increased in magnitude 
with prolonged southward periods of -10nT. The effects of this 
current geoeffective coronal hole are expected to continue for 
the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 
with the possibility of M-class events if the gradual growth 
of regions 782 and 783 continues. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2221 2333
      Learmonth           10   2222 3333
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             6   1110 2333
      Hobart               7   1121 2332
      Casey(Ant)           8   2232 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   1112 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul    20    active 
03 Jul    16    active 
04 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions expected over the next 
24 hours with current geoeffective coronal hole effects taking 
effect. Isolated periods of Minor Geomagnetic Storming possible. 
Conditions abating from 03Jul onwards. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations at high latitude 
locations over the next 2 days due to expected elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Otherwise generally good HF conditions are expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
03 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
04 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over 
the next 24 hours for Northern Aus regions. Possible minor to 
mild degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions are expected over 
the next 2 days due the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity 
from a recurrant coronal hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    59500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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