[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with C-class activity from 
regions 782 and 787. The largest event being a C4.7 class flare 
from region 787 at 0445UT. Region 782 was the source of two other 
smaller C-class events. Solar wind speed continued to decline 
from 560km/s at 0000UT to be 480km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) flucatuated between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate with the small chance of an 
M-class event, with region 783 continuing with its slow growth
over the last 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2111
      Learmonth            6   2223 2001
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             7   2224 2001
      Hobart               8   2224 2111
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   4322 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected over
the next 24 hours as the coronal hole effects subside, with
isolated Active periods still possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed over the last 
24 hours with similar conditions expected over the next 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over 
the next 2 days for all Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 569 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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