[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 16 10:40:56 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.2 0043UT probable all West Pacific
M1.3 0416UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.4 0431UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.6 0642UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0940UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1148UT possible lower European
M3.2 1424UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 2209UT possible lower West Pacific
X2.7 2302UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar region 720 has produced at two Earth directed
major solar events. A type II and IV radio sweep was observed
on the Culgoora Spectrograph at around 06UT and 22UT. The 06
UT radio emission was associated with an M8 flare. The 22UT sweep
with an X2 flare, which remains in progress. Solar region 720
at the time of flares was more or less centrally located. A proton
enhancement (count just below event level for 10MeV energies)
followed the M8 flare. The X2 is likely to produce energetic
protons as well. This region is expected to continue to flare.
Solar region 718 located to the south of 720 is also flare active
producing an M3 event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 17 4433 3322
Darwin 19 4532 3322
Learmonth 20 5433 3323
Culgoora 12 3333 2322
Canberra 17 3443 3322
Hobart 19 3444 3321
Casey(Ant) 24 5--4 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2221 1144
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 40 Minor storm
17 Jan 80 Severe Storm levels
18 Jan 60 Severe Storm levels
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and
is current for interval 16-17 January. The geomagnetic field
today is expected to be initially unsettled. Severe storm conditions
are expected late 16/17 Jan an extending into 18 Jan due to recent
coronal masss ejection events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Fair Fair-Poor Fair-Poor
17 Jan Poor Poor Poor
18 Jan Poor Poor Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded due to frequent short
wave fadeouts. In addition polar region communication sare expected
to be impacted by high energy proton event(s) (polar cap absorption
PCA). Also, severe geomagnetic storm activity is expected in
coming days further degrading HF conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 60 15-20% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 30 to
40%
18 Jan -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now
enroute to the Earth expected 16-18 Jan. MUF are expected to
become very depressed in coming days. HF communication may become
very difficult if this active solar region continues to flare
whilst lower than normal MUFs are being experienced due to the
expected storm ionosphere. Recommended course of action for today
is to use as high a frequecny as possible (due to elevated ALF
conditions) and then be prepared to use a lower frequecny once
mass ejection has impacted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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