[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 17 09:49:06 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.7 15/2302UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M2.4    2203UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114
COMMENT: Solar region 720 now located at N14W17 remains flare 
active producing an M2/1N event this morning. As stated in yesterdays 
report this region has produced two strong solar events. US ACE 
satellite EPAM (low energy ion channels) data count values can 
be used as a precursor to shock arrival, and these values have 
shown a increase in count, suggesting the first shock may arrive 
during the first half of today (originally expected late 16 Jan). 
This coronal mass ejection (CME) is presumed from the recent 
M8 flare. A second shock is also expected from the X2 flare/CME. 
Further flares and fadeouts are expected today. This region is 
now in a very geoeffective location, just west on solar central 
meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2233 4423
      Darwin              13   2223 4423
      Learmonth           20   2224 45-3
      Culgoora            14   2233 441-
      Canberra            15   2233 442-
      Hobart              14   2333 3422
      Casey(Ant)          25   4-44 4433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             22   3643 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan    80    Storm levels 
18 Jan    60    Storm levels 
19 Jan    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and 
is current for interval 16-17 January. The first coronal mass 
ejection has yet to arrive, but remains expected. Severe storm 
conditions are expected for 17 Jan and extending into 18 Jan 
due to recent coronal mass ejection events. Auroral activity 
at lower than normal latitudes is probable during late 17-18 
Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and 
	    is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor          
18 Jan      Fair-poor      Poor           Poor          
19 Jan      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor          
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded due to frequent short 
wave fadeouts. Polar regions currently impacted by increassed 
absorption from proton event. Hf conditions expected to deteriorate 
second half on 17 Jan due to expected arrival of coronal mass 
ejections. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 30 to 
                40% 
18 Jan   -10    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
19 Jan   -10    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January 
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions 
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active 
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now 
presumed enroute to the Earth. The first coronal mass ejection 
was expected to arrive late 16 Jan, now expected first half 17 
Jan. Depression T index forecast slipped out one day as a result. 
Frequent fadeouts expected on daylight HF circuits. Recommended 
course of action for today is to use as high a frequecny as possible 
(due to elevated ALF conditions) and then be prepared to use 
a lower frequency once mass ejection has impacted, probably after 
local Aus/NZ dawn on Tuesday. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 629 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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