[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.8/SF    1411UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.5    1757UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    1606UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3221 1134
      Darwin               7   3221 1134
      Learmonth           10   3221 2244
      Culgoora             5   2211 1133
      Canberra             8   2221 1144
      Hobart               7   3221 1134
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 2234
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   2422 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     6    Quiet 
16 Jan     7    Quiet 
17 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jan    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 709 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   259000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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