[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 14 09:56:07 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated due to solar coronal
hole at around 700km/sec. Solar region 720 located in the north-east
solar quadrant is now a compact spot group. However, the magnetic
configuration (seen in SOHO MDI imagery) remains predominately
bipolar, some opposite polarity may be developing in the the
trailers. Solar region 718 located in the south-east solar quadrant
shows development of an opposite polarity channel in its trailers,
along with corresponding spot development from 14UT. Solar flare
activity is likely to increase in coming days if these regions
continue to grow.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 3323 3333
Darwin 10 3222 3233
Learmonth 13 3323 3333
Culgoora 11 2323 3232
Canberra 13 3323 3332
Hobart 15 3333 3332
Casey(Ant) 22 4--4 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 121 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30 4535 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 16 active
15 Jan 12 Unsettled
16 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 12 January and
is current for interval 13-14 January. Geomagnetic activity over
past 24 hours has been less than forecast despite increased soalr
wind speeds. Chance for active conditions today, then field is
expected to decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible today at mid to hogh latitudes
due to increased solar wind speed from solar coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 13 January
and is current for interval 13-14 January. Depressed conditions
observed southern Aus/NZ region yesterday during local daylight
hours. Mild depressions of around 15% may again be experienced
after local dawn over the next few days, southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 641 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 255000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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