[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 8 10:49:56 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no major flare activity, only a few minor B-class events from
region 718 that has just rotated on disc. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz was northward from 0000UT
to 1300UT at which it swung southward -10nT till 1500UT, due
to glancing blow effects from recent CME activity. At 2000UT
it again swung southward with a maximum of -15nT and remains
so at the time of this report. The solar wind stream parameters
still remained at elevated levels, with the solar wind velocity
beginning to rise from 500km/s to 600km/s at 0800UT. Possible
increase in solar acitivity over the next few days due to new
region 718 rotating onto disc in the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 21 1113 5546
Darwin 13 1112 4446
Learmonth 23 1103 5555
Culgoora 19 1113 5536
Canberra 18 1103 5536
Hobart 15 0113 4536
Casey(Ant) 15 12-4 4335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2000 0131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 18 active
09 Jan 16 active
10 Jan 16 active
COMMENT: Quiet to Major Storm conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours with the arrival of a glancing blow from recent
CME activity and elevated solar wind parameters from geoeffective
coronal holes. Conditions are expected to range from Quiet to
Minor Storm level over the next 2 days with further transient
arrivals possible and continued high speed coronal hold wind
streams with another smaller equatorial positioned coronal hole
moving into geoeffective position over the last 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressed periods observed for Mid to High latitutes
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditons are possible for Mid
to High latitudes for the next 2 days, otherwise conditons are
expected to be normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
09 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditons are still expected for the next
few days. Increased chance of depressed periods during the local
day over Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 94300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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