[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 7 10:41:57 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity or new regions observed. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz was northward for most
of the UT day, only turning south between 1650UT and 2000UT,
with a maximum of 5nT in magnitude. Solar wind stream parameters
began the day at elevated levels but appear to be declining,
with the solar wind velocity dropping from 600km/s to be almost
500km/s at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1122
Darwin 4 2111 1123
Learmonth 5 2111 1232
Culgoora 3 1111 1122
Canberra 3 1111 1122
Hobart 3 1111 1121
Casey(Ant) 13 -33- 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 142 (Severe storm)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 21 5454 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
08 Jan 13 Unsettled to Active
09 Jan 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours
with less than expected geomagnetic effects from recent mass
ejections and the declining solar wind stream from geoeffective
coronal holes. Possible Unsettled to Active periods are expected
over the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressed periods observed for Mid to High latitutes
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditons are possible for Mid
to High latitudes for the next 2 days, otherwise conditons are
expected to be normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 45 near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal conditons expected for the next few days, with
the chance of depressed periods during the local day over Southern
AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 683 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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