[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 9 10:44:23 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
a C-class flare event from new region 719, as well as numerous
B-class events. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, Bz was northward for most of the UT day ranging
from neutral to 18nT. The solar wind stream parameters began
the UT day at elevated levels, but gradually dropped from 550km/s
to 450km/s at the time of this report. Regions 718 and 719 hold
the potential for C-class flare activity over the next few days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
08/1900UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 39 6654 4223
Darwin 39 6654 4223
Learmonth 38 6653 4233
Culgoora 33 5653 4223
Canberra 39 6654 4223
Hobart 37 6654 3223
Casey(Ant) 65 6863 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 154 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 37 1001 6647
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 16 active
10 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
11 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 8 January and
is current for interval 8-9 January. Quiet to Major Storm conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours with a disturbed first half
of the UT day due to transient effects from the arrival of a
glancing blow from recent CME activity. Conditions are expected
to range from Quiet to Active for the next 24 hours with small
chance of further transient arrivals possible. A small equatorial
positioned coronal hole has moved into geoeffective position
and may contribute to a small increase in solar wind parameters.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressed periods observed over all latitutes over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditons are expected for the next
24 hours, otherwise conditons are expected to be normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressed conditions expected for the next 24 hours
during local day for Southern Australia and NZ regions, otherwise
conditions expected to be normal. Normal HF conditons are expected
for 10-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 76900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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