[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 23 10:36:47 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
only a B8.9-class flare the only notable event. This event originated
from the west limb, where regions 735 and 736 are located and
due to rotate of disk in the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed
briefly rose from 380km/s to be 410km/s at 1200UT and then gradually
fell to be 360km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was northward
for most of the UT day, except for the brief period when the
solar wind speed plateaued, Bz turned south with a maximum of
-5nT. Solar activity is expected to be at very-low to low levels
for the next 24 hours due to the absence of any major sunspots
on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 2111 1222
Darwin 4 2111 1222
Learmonth 3 2100 1222
Culgoora 3 2110 1212
Canberra 3 1110 0222
Hobart 4 1111 1222
Casey(Ant) 11 3332 1322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 3312 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
25 Feb 16 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to
Unsettled for the next 24 hours. Chance of isolated Active periods
are possible from 23Feb onwards due to the influence of coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for all latitudes over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next 2 days. Chance of depressed periods for mid-high
latitudes on day 3 of this forecast, due to expected geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for all regions over the
last 24 hours. Conditions expected to continue for the next 2
days, with the chance of mild depressions for Southern AUS/NZ
regions on day 3 of this forecast, with an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 40400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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