[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 24 09:57:48 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: A coronal hole is visible in the north-east solar quadrant, 
using SOHO EIT imagery. Also, a long narrow coronal hole is visible 
diagonaly spanning the solar disk. The Earth is expected to enter 
a coronal hole wind stream 25-26 Feb. Solar flare activity over 
the past 24 hours has been minor, and from two regions 736 and 
735 which are about to rotate off disk. Some plage is visible 
S10W31, but is currently spotless. Solar wind conditions currently 
nominal, with a northward interplanetary magnetic ifeld orientation. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2122
      Darwin               5   2121 2121
      Learmonth            5   2121 2122
      Culgoora             4   1221 2022
      Canberra             4   1121 2022
      Hobart               4   1121 1122
      Casey(Ant)           9   23-3 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Feb    20    active 
26 Feb    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 25-26 February. The geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be quiet today. Coronal hole wind stream induced 
activity expected 25-26 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected today. Mild to moderately 
degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes late 25-26 
Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
25 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
26 Feb    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 26-27 February. MUFs expected to 
be near to 15% above predicted monthly values for today. Lower 
than normal MUFs are expected on 26 Feb, folowing anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream induced activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    28500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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