[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 16 10:37:23 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. One C-class and a
few B-class flares were observed. The C-flare (a C1.1) came
from region 734(S04W11) at 1948UT. The solar wind speed
remained between 380 and 400 km/s almost the whole day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations (between +/- 5nT
approx.) almost the whole day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at low levels during the next 3 days. The solar
wind stream may show some strengthening on 17 and 18 February
as a coronal hole is expected to take a geoeffective position
around this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 2221 0012
Darwin 3 2221 0012
Learmonth 3 2121 0012
Culgoora 9 13-- ---3
Canberra 3 2121 0012
Hobart 3 2210 0112
Casey(Ant) 7 3-32 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
17 Feb 10 Quiet to unsettled
18 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next 24 hours with
slight possibility of isolated unsettled periods. The
activity level may start rising from 17 February as a
coronal hole is expected to take a geoeffective position
around this time. Quiet to unsettled levels of activity
are expected on 17 February and unsettled to active levels
on 18 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on mid and high latitudes during the next three days. Minor
to mild degradations in HF conditions are possible on high
latitudes during this period due to the possibility of rise
in geomagnetic activity on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 67 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
17 Feb 60 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. However,
there is slight possibility of some degradations in HF
conditions in the southern Aus/NZ regions on 17 and 18
February due to the possibility of rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 74500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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