[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 15 10:36:04 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 118/70

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 734(S05E03) 
produced a C1.9 flare(0408UT) associated with a Type IV 
event. Region 733(S09W14) produced a C1.5 flare(1158UT) 
associated with a Type II event with an estimated speed 
of 904 km/s. The partial halo CME, that was observed in 
association with the C2 flare on 13 February, doesn't seem 
to have any significant earthward directed component. The 
solar wind speed remained close to 360 km/s for the first 
six hours of the UT day and then showed a rapid rise to 380 
km/s. The solar wind speed remained between 380 and 400 km/s 
during the rest of the day until the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained close to the normal value for the first 
6 hours of the UT day and then showed fluctuations between 
+/- 5nT throughout the rest of the day. Region 735(S08E19) 
has shown some growth during the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at low levels during the 
next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 1122
      Darwin               4   2121 1112
      Learmonth            5   2221 1122
      Culgoora             2   0121 1012
      Canberra             3   1121 1111
      Hobart               4   1211 2122
      Casey(Ant)           8   23-- 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1111 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb     7    Quiet 
16 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Feb     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. However, 
there is some possibility for the activity to rise upto 
unsettled levels at times on 16 February. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations during the next three days. 
However, there is some possibility of isolated periods 
of minor degradations on high latitude locations on 
16 February due to some possibility of slight rise in 
geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Feb    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    65    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%. 
16 Feb    58    near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb    65    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    39300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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