[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 14 10:41:30 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two C-class flares
were observed today, the largest being a C2.5 flare at
1040UT from region 733(S09E00). This flare was associated
to a TypeII sweep with a speed of 813 km/s as per Learmonth
estimation. A relatively faint CME was also seen from the
South-Eastern limb starting in LASCO imagery at 1130UT/13
February, but it is not clear at this stage if this CME
was associated to this C2.5 flare. Region 734(S04E16)
produced the other C-flare of the day, a C1.4 at 1458UT.
The coronal hole effect seems to have died out now as the
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 460 km/s to 360
km/s during the UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at low levels during the next 3 days.
Region 733 holds potential for C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 2111 1111
Darwin 4 2221 1112
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora 2 1110 0111
Canberra 2 2110 01--
Hobart 3 2111 1111
Casey(Ant) 7 3--2 1221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2211 1120
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 8 Quiet
16 Feb 8 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. However,
there is some possibility for the activity to rise upto
unsettled levels at times on 14 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations during the next three days.
However, there is some possibility of isolated periods
of minor to mild degradations on high latitude locations
on 14 February due to some possibility of slight rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 52 near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
16 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three
days. However, minor depressions may be observed at
times in the southern Aus/NZ regions on 14 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 93600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list