[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 17 10:42:55 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today, with only one notable
C-class flare observed, a C1.9 at 1635UT from region 735. The
solar wind speed fell from 420km/s to be 380km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations (between +/- 5nT
approx.) for most of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
remain at these low levels for the next 3 days. Solar wind stream
parameters are expected to rise from Feb17 onwards, as a coronal
hole is expected to move into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 15 3313 4332
Darwin 9 2312 3322
Learmonth 11 2312 4322
Culgoora 14 2323 4332
Canberra 14 2323 4332
Hobart 12 3112 3432
Casey(Ant) 14 4--3 3223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5 1120 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Feb 18 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at Quiet levels for the next 24 hours, but with expected Unsettled
periods as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position. Unsettled
to Active levels are expected on 18Feb and 19Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
mid and high latitudes during the next three days. Minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions are possible for high latitudes
for the next 3 days with an expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 80 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 60 about 5% below predicted monthly values
19 Feb 55 about 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most Aus/NZ regions for the next three days, with the possibility
of some degradations in the southern Aus/NZ regions on 17Feb
and 18Feb due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on
these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 66800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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