[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 700km/sec over UT day, 
due to coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated mildy southward 
over the UT day. Solar region 730, 732 and 733 have flare potential. 
Solar region 732 produced some minor flare activity over the 
past 24 hours. Low to moderate activity expected for next few 
days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   4433 4444
      Darwin              20   3433 3444
      Learmonth           23   3333 4544
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            25   -434 4443
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)          31   53-- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             23   3323 5455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb    17    active 
10 Feb    12    Unsettled 
11 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 7 February and 
is current for interval 8-9 February. Active periods expected 
today due to coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communications mildly degraded 
next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb     5    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 7 February 
and is current for interval 8-9 February. Lower than normal MUFs 
observed local day yesterday. Lower than normal MUFs observed 
after local dawn this morning following cooronal hole wind stream 
induced activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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